Australia is expected to prepare for flooding this storm season with the Bureau of Meteorology (Bom) predicting there is twice the chance of a Formation of La Nina .
La Nina events increase the chances of above average precipitation for northern and eastern Australia in spring and summer. Bom's climatologist Tamika Tihema said the office predicted La Nina was twice as likely to form after updates to its current modeling.
"This does not guarantee that a La Nina will occur, Mays that there is about a 50% chance that La Nina will form. This means that about half of the climate models used by the office suggest that a La Nina event is likely to develop, ”she says.
Tihema says the possibility of La Nina influencing severe weather conditions, with above-average rainfall forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the country for the rest of the year, increased the risk of flooding.
"For many areas including parts of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, northern Tasmania and southwest Western Australia and northern Australia, the soil moisture is wetter than average "she says.
"As it means more rain on moist soilses, there is an increased risk of flooding in these areas. "
Tihema says the increased likelihood of La Nina is partially attributed to the surface of sea temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean which have cooled over the past two months.
"We are seeing changes in observations and climate model perspectives that indicate an increased likelihood of La Nina in the coming months, ”she says.
" Chances of exceeding median precipitation are greater than 70% for much of two-thirds is of the country for the remainder of 2021.
"Chances of above-average precipitation for the period from November to January is around 60% or more for two-thirds of eastern Australia. "
NSW SES commissioner Carlene York said that the stormy season of this year - whichTraditionally runs from October to March - will likely bring conditions similar to last year, including widespread heavy rains and the risk of riverine and flash flooding.
"In the previous storm season, we experienced major flooding statewide " says York.
"Not so long ago, our volunteers responded to the major flooding that overwhelmed the communities of Hawkesbury-Nepean, Hunter and the Mid-Coast North. This event alone enabled us to respond to over 14,000 requests for assistance, including over 1,000 flood rescues.
"It is extremely important that communities make sure they are ready." Storms can strike at any time. The more you can do now to prepare, the less emergency help you will need from our volunteers whenthese weather events will occur.
York says Covid- safe practices have been implemented to respond to lockdowns and ongoing health measures.
The nomenclature indicates that the Southern Oscillation El Nino (ENSO) is a "natural" part of the climate system, climate change continues to have an impact on changing weather patterns . Australia has warmed by 1.44 ° C since the records began in 1910.
Southern Australia has experienced a reduction rainfall of between 10% and 20% during its cool season in recent decades, while rainfall in northern Australia during its wet season has increased since the 1990s, with shorter and heavier showers .
"Research suggests El Nino may bring more rainfall to the P OceanCentral and Eastern tropical acific under global warming, and La Nina precipitation could be more abundant in the Western Pacific and the South Pacific… but what these changes mean for Australia is not clear ", Tihema says.
"Research also suggests that there may be an increase in the frequency of major El Nino and La Nina events. What the future holds reserve in El Nino, La Nina and their impacts are the subject of ongoing research. "