- September exports +28.1% per year against + 21% forecast in the Hfrance.fr survey
- September imports + 17.6% per year against + 20% forecast
- September trade balance 66.76 billion dollars against 46.8 billion dollars forecast
BEIJING, October 13 (Hfrance.fr) - China Export growth is growing unexpectedly accelerated in September, as continued strong global demand offset some of the pressure on factories from electricity shortages, supply bottlenecks and a resurgence of domestic cases of COVID-19.
The world's second-largest economy has experienced an impressive rebound from the pandemic, but there are signs the recovery is faltering. Problems such as slumping factory activity, continued weakness in consumption and a slowdown in the real estate sector have clouded China's economic outlook.
Outbound shipments in September jumped 28.1% from a year earlier, compared to a 25.6% gain in August. Analysts polled by Hfrance.fr predicted that growth would slow to 21%.
"We believe that the rationing of electricity from the mid-September has yet to impact exports, "said Ting Lu, Nomura chief economist for China.
Lu said a high baseline and falling demand for durable goods, as more countries spend on services as they adopt a life strategy with COVID-19, will also be factors moderators.
"We forecast overall year-over-year export growth to first slow moderately in October, then drop significantly in November and December at around 10%. "
Electricity shortages caused by a transition to clean energy, strong industrial demand and high raw material prices, have interrupted production in many factories, including including many sourcing companies such as Apple (AAPL.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) since the end of September.
Recent data indicates a slowdown in production activity . China's manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracted in September as industrial companies battled rising costs and power rationing. learn more
In oFurthermore, the real estate sector, a key engine of growth, is reeling from the growing defaults of Chinese developers, with the fall in real estate sales and the slowdown in new construction.
Chinese imports in September rose 17.6%, lagging behind an expected gain of 20% in an Hfrance.fr survey and growth of 33.1% the previous month .
"Considering the sharp increase in import prices, this means that import volumes were down compared to ago a year last month, because demand in the Chinese economy has slowed down considerably, "said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia. economy at Oxford Economics.
However, China's energy demand is growing rapidly.
The volume of coal imports in September reached its highest level norcalf this year as power plants scrambled for fuel to boost power generation ration to alleviate the power shortage and replenish stocks ahead of the winter heating season.
Natural gas imports in September also hit their highest level since January this year.
China posted a trade surplus of $ 66.76 billion in September, compared to survey forecast of a surplus of 46.8 billion and $ 58.34 billion in August.
Many analysts expect the central bank to inject more stimulus into reducing the amount of liquidity banks must hold in reserve later this year to help small and medium-sized businesses.
China has largely contained epidemics of coronavirus caused by the more infectious delta variant, but analysts say the country's "zero tolerance " COVID-19 policy and extensive international shipping capacity could be constraints.
China Trade surplus with the United States reached $ 42 billion, according to calculations by Hfrance.fr based on customs data, against $ 37.68 billion in August .
Last week, senior trade officials from the United States and China reviewed the implementation of the Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States and China.
The United States has pressured China to maintain commitments under a a “phase 1” trade deal that calmed a long tariff war between the world's two largest economies. The phase 1 agreement is due to expire at the end of 2021. learn more Additional report from Colin Qian; Edited by Jacqueline Wong
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