Already, more people have returned ballots than votes cast in the last recall election in California in 2003.
More than nine million votes have already been received in the recall election in California , suggesting a relatively high turnout is no longer reminiscent of a low power special election but a well-publicized midterm.
These nine million votes will likely get most of the votes cast in the election. They were cast overwhelmingly by mail or through an early in-person vote. And they offer an emerging picture of an electorate somewhat older, whiter, and more educated than those who returned the ballots at that time during the election. the presidential election last November.
Overall, in recall, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a margin of 25 points in ballots recorded so far, 51-26%, according to figures from Political Data, a California-based data providere. This Democratic advantage is almost identical to the 50-25% advantage that California Democrats enjoyed among the ballots returned at this point in 2020.
Like last November's election, registered Democrats were slightly more likely to advance polls than Republicans, likely reflecting Democrats 'new enthusiasm for postal voting during the pandemic - or Republicans' skepticism of voting by mail order during the Trump era.
President Biden won California by 29 percentage points.
Despite the similar partisan makeup of the advance poll, the state received fewer ballots than at this stage of the general election, when 13 million ballots already had been returned to election officials.
Au total, 16% of the ballots are from voters aged 18-34 and 18% would be Latinos , according to their names or neighborhoods. At this point in 2020, 21% were between the ages of 18 and 34 and 21% were Latinos.
Typically, young voters and Latinos are more likely to vote closer to elections. and will likely represent a larger share of all voters, as they did in 2020.
Even so, the turnout seems high by almost all other standards in addition to 2020 election. Already, more people have returned ballots than they voted in the last recall election in California in 2003, when the Democratic Governor Gray Davis has been recalled and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican. He is also higher than the rate of total turnout in the 2014 midterm elections.
The relatively high and democratic turnout so far has further narrowed the already daunting path to recall M. Newsom . The possibility that Republicans might have an unusual stake advantage, however, was one of the most likely ways the recall effort could be successful in a Predominantly democratic state.