More than nine of the millions of votes have already been received in California's recall election, suggesting a relatively high turnout that is reminiscent of not a low-power special election but a high-profile midterm.
These nine million votes will likely represent most of the votes cast in the election. They were overwhelmingly cast by mail or through an early vote in person. And they offer an emerging image of a somewhat older, whiter, and more educated electorate than those who handed in the ballots around that time in last November's presidential election.
Overall, in the recall, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by aThe 25-point margin in the ballots recorded so far, 51 to 26 percent, according to figures from Political Data, a data provider based in California. This Democratic advantage is almost identical to the 50-25% advantage that California Democrats enjoyed among the ballots returned at this point in 2020.
Like last November's election, Registered Democrats were slightly more likely to advance polls than Republicans, likely reflecting Democrats 'new enthusiasm for postal voting during the pandemic - or Republicans' skepticism about it. respect to postal voting in Trump's day.
President Biden won California by 29 percentage points.
Despi Given the similar partisan makeup of advance polls, the state received fewer ballots.e vote only at this stage of the general election, when 13 million ballots had already been returned to election officials.
Overall, 16% of returns are from voters aged 18-34 and 18% are said to be Latinos, based on their last names or neighborhood. At this point in 2020, 21% were between the ages of 18 and 34 and 21% were Latinos.
Typically, young voters and Latinos are more likely to vote closer to elections. and will likely represent a larger share of all voters, as they did in 2020.
Even so, the turnout seems high by almost all other standards in addition to 2020 election. Already, more people returned ballots than votes cast in the last recall election in California in 2003, when the governorDemocrat Gray Davis was recalled and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican. It is also higher than the total turnout in the 2014 midterm elections.
The relatively high and democratic turnout so far further narrowed down the already daunting path to recall Mr Newsom. The possibility that Republicans could have an unusual turnout benefit was seen as one of the most likely ways the recall effort could be successful in a majority Democratic state.