Already more people have returned ballots of votes cast in the last recall election in California in 2003.
Over nine million votes have already been received in California's recall election, suggesting a relatively high turnout closer to a low-watt-special-election but a high-profile midterm.
These nine million votes will probably represent most of the votes cast in the election. They wereoverwhelmingly expressed by mail or through an advance vote in person. And they offer an emerging image of a somewhat older, whiter, and more educated electorate than those who handed in the ballots around that time in last November's presidential election.
Overall, in recall, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a margin of 25 points in the ballots registered so far, 51 to 26%, according to figures from Political Data, a California-based data provider. This Democratic advantage is almost identical to the 50-25% advantage that California Democrats enjoyed among the ballots returned at this point in 2020.
Like last November's election, Registered Democrats were slightly more likely to advance polls than Republicans, likely reflecting the no.uvel Democrats' enthusiasm for postal voting during the pandemic - or Republicans skepticism about postal voting in Trump's day.
President Biden won California by 29 percentage points.
Despite the similar partisan makeup of the advance poll, the state received less ballots only at this stage of the general election, when 13 million ballots had already been returned to election officials.
In the together, 16% of returns are from voters aged 18 to 34 and 18% are believed to be Latinos, based on their last name or neighborhood. At this point in 2020, 21% were between the ages of 18 and 34 and 21% were Latinos.
Typically, young voters and Latinos are more likely to vote closer to electionss. and will likely represent a larger share of all voters, as they did in 2020.
Even so, the turnout seems high by almost all other standards in addition to 2020 election. Already, more people have returned ballots than votes cast in the last recall election in California in 2003, when Democratic Gov. Gray Davis was recalled and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican. It is also higher than the total turnout in the 2014 midterm elections.
The relatively high and democratic turnout so far further narrowed down the already daunting path to recall Mr Newsom. The possibility that Republicans could have an unusual turnout benefit was seen as one of the most likely ways for the recall effort to be successful in a summer.was predominantly Democrat.