September 13 (Hfrance.fr) - Goldman Sachs said Hurricane Ida had a bigger impacton oil production than on refinery demand, causing a net "bullish " impact on US and world storage levels.
The investment bank, in a note dated September 9, called the blow to US production "historically significant " and expects nearly 40 million barrels of crude production to lose , with challenges to restart the flow from Mars probably until mid-October.
US refiners come back faster than oil production, a reversal of past storm recoveries with just three of nine refineries completely idle, accounting for about 7% of Gulf Coast refining, compared to two-thirds of oil production on Friday. learn more
The impact on refining was broadly in line with previous hurricanes, the bank said, with around 1.5 million barrels per day still offline and the recovery likely to "follow the usual exponential pattern of diminishing disruptions by half every 10 days. "
Concerns over production shutdown due to Ida helped push prices up oil above $ 70 a barrel, with Brent crude trading at $ 73.39 and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $ 70.19 at 08:29 GMT.
Goldman expects peak demand to impact only 450,000 barrels per day from the hurricane, largely due to the disruption downstream petrochemical plants in the Gulf of Mexico which represent a large part of the petrochemical capacity.
"On the net, we think the storm will have left the United Statesnis less than 30 million barrels of total oil, almost entirely in product form due to the impact on refining cycles relative to demand "he added.
"While there is pessimism about the recovery in oil demand due to t The storm, reducing COVID infections, particularly in the United States United, could offset the decline in the coming weeks, with both higher US margins and a tightening WTI-Brent differential. " Report by Seher Dareen and Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; edited by David Evans
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