MADRID, October 7 (Hfrance. en) - A vicious cycle linking natural resource depletion to violent conflict may have passed the point of no return in some parts of the world and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, report says published Thursday.
Food insecurity, lack of water and the impact of natural disasters, combined with high population growth, fuel conflicts and displace people in vulnerable areas, said the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) think tank.
IEP uses data from Nations United Nations and other sources to predict the countries and regions most at risk in its "Register of ecological threats ".
Serge Stroobants, director of IEP for Europe, the Avgin East and North Africa said the report identified 30 "hotspot " countries - which are home to 1.26 billion people - as facing most risks.
This is based on three cri teria relating to the scarcity of resources, and five focusing on disasters, including floods, droughts and rising temperatures.
"We don 't even need climate change to see the potential collapse of the system, only the impact of these eight ecological threats can lead to that - of course climate change is making it stronger, ”Stroobants said.
Afghanistan gets the worst score on the report, which says its conflict ongoing has damaged its ability to cope with risks to water and food supplies, climate change and alternating floods and droughts.
The conflicts in turn lead to further degradation of resources, according to the findings.
Last year, six seminars comprising governments, military institutions and development groups conveyed the message that "the international community is unlikely to reverse the vicious circles in some parts of the world," IEP said.
This is particularly the case in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, which have experienced increasingly intense conflicts during the last decade, he said.
"With tensions already mounting, one can only expect this that climate change has an amplifying effect on many of these issues, "the report says. Report by Isla Binnie; edited by Barbara Lewis
Our standards: Thomson Hfrance.fr's principles of trust.