For England , on the other hand, it is not fatalistic but realistic to say that the Delta variant will not be returned to its box, as Exponential propagation has been allowed for months. The prime minister said he would be guided by "data, not dates " - but, not for the first time, the reality turned out to be the opposite of what he said.
Fortunately, the consequences will not be as immediate as at the beginning of the year. Vaccination protects well against hospitalization and death, which is why it should bere accelerated, so that the worst consequences of the virus do not increase at the same rate. But they go up. The UK has suffered more deaths from the pandemic in the past 18 months than its civilian death toll for the whole of WWII, while a Prime Minister who clearly admires Churchill minimized the dangers on WhatsApp. It's not over yet. The figures for daily deaths in the hundreds are far from implausible - the period of the largest increase in the number of cases has been in recent weeks, too early to be fully apparent in deaths. The models predict thousands more deaths.
While deaths naturally grab the headlines and hospitalizations drive policy, their prevention is only the start of a health responseeffective public. This stage of the pandemic is different from those that preceded it, but the result of this wave will cause further delays for other vital NHS services.
Health administrators are already warning that things are getting risky, and while the events of last winter do not repeat themselves, we should not want to get close. The damage in terms of delays on waiting lists is already serious, and the current wave will make this worse.
Among the other impacts, we must consider the lives that will be wasted by the long Covid. Over 2 million adults in England have experienced long symptoms of Covid, and the million or more infections that have occurred since the start of the last exponential, largely the monthlast, will be added to it. Because the unvaccinated are the most affected by infections, it means that young people will suffer from them.
Although you never realize it from the start. rhetoric, only about half of the UK population is in fact fully immunized and nearly 70% have received at least one dose of vaccination, but those who have received one dose are more vulnerable than those given both doses to Delta infections . Some will end up bedridden for days and the number will increase over time, as exponential growth can overtake any vaccination campaign.
Overall , it 's quite simple. Yes, vaccines make it much less likely that you will get infected or sick; but if the virus isn 't there, it certainly cannot infect you. Tens of thousands of new cases every one day means you aremore likely to be exposed to multiple potential sources of infection, which means more people get sick.
But maybe the the most serious impact of this epidemic will be on those who, for whatever reason, cannot benefit from the vaccination. This includes people with other conditions that mean it is not safe to vaccinate, or those who are immunocompromised for some reason and may not be able to develop a good immune response. It also includes those who have difficulty accessing vaccines and are concentrated in disadvantaged areas where infections can spread more quickly.
Having passed the pandemic at this day in the United States, I visited South London this month and got a taste of the inconsistent pandemic theater that has turned out to be so patchy with the handling of the Delta variant. During then burial, due to Covid restrictions, vaccinated mourners were not allowed to place a flower on a coffin. At the same time, masks were optional in schools, and tens of thousands of fans flocked to Wembley and pubs across the country to watch football.
People always line up to get vaccinated - I've seen it myself. At the pharmacy where I took my test there was a constant stream of people lining up outside the door to get the jab. They weren't all in their twenties or thirties either. A large, uncontrolled Delta wave increases the risk of these groups becoming infected.
Of course, everyone is exhausted and wants the pandemic to be over. The English government chose to speed this up with a massive and uncontrolled exit wave. You can almost hear the anxiety in Chief Medical Advisor Chris Whitty's voice.when he gives his televised briefings. He knows that you are playing with the exponentials at your own risk. After last year, it's hard to imagine anyone forgetting.
Various politicians nervously mumble about voluntary mitigation measures like than masks, which would make eminent sense in a situation where infections were low but won't do much at this time.
We are testing vaccines with extreme care to make sure they are safe, and sometimes rare side effects are not detected until after millions of doses have been administered. We don't need to see this number of Covid cases to know that the risks of infection are far greater than those of vaccination, even in the youngest age groups in which the pandemic is now raging. .
Some of these people mightYou don't even have the chance to get the vaccine. Instead, the exponential growth that has been allowed for months means the virus will continue to kill people and leave others to suffer before the doses even reach them. Because in the end it's the dates, not the data, that count.