Concept Highway Results
By Mark P. Jones
Three provinces , Chubut, Neuquen and Santa Cruz, produce 79% of Argentina's oil and 83% of son natural gas. In Sunday's compulsory primaries, which serves as a key biennial barometer of political power in Argentina, across all three provinces, the governor suffered an electoral defeat and a corresponding blow to his political power. At the same time, the prospects for several potential gubernatorial candidates for 2023 have been strengthened.
In Chubut, the candidates of Governor Mariano Arcioni for the post of national senator (Chubut is one of eight provinces to elect senators this cycle) and the national deputy finished far third behind the combined lists of the two main alliances / rival parties. While Arcioni is allied with the national government of President Alberto Fernandez and Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, he chose to present his own list (Chubut Somos Todos, CST), competing against Frente de Todos (FdT ) in power in addition to the main opposition Juntos por el Cambio (JxC). When electingOn crucial senatorial, where the winning party obtains two seats and the second party one seat, the CST of Arcioni finished far third with only 14% of the vote, half that of the two FdT lists (28%) and only one. third of that won by the three JxC lists (41%).
The only positive point for Arcioni is that the performance of its CST has been so anemic that the national leadership of the FdT (including the main ally d 'Arcioni in the government coalition FdT, Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies Sergio Massa) could try to relieve him of the need to compete and to be embarrassed again in the general elections on 14 November. With the TDF senatorial majority at stake, there will be idable back pressure on Arcioni to withdraw his list and support the TDF winning list led by Carlos Linares in an effort to endow Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (President of the Senate). ) of two Chubut Senators rather than one.
AT Neuquen (home of the shale game Vaca Muerta), the candidate handpicked by Governor Omar Gutierrez for the national deputy was beaten, 49% to 47%, in the primary of the Movimiento Popular Neuquino (MPN) by the main intra - rival of the party, its former lieutenant-governor (2015-19) Rolando “Rolo” Figueroa. Thanks "to his victory , Figueroa is positioned as perhaps the main candidate to succeed Gutierrez as governor in 2023.
The only positive point for Gutierrez is that the share of the combined votes of the MPN candidates (36%) eclipses that of the main rivals of the MPN (the JxC with 19% and the FdT with 16%) reinforcing the position of the MPN status of watchdog in the province which it governs without interruption since the return of Argentiborn to democracy in 1983.
In Santa Cruz, Governor Alicia Kirchner (sister-in-law of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner) saw her only FdT list (27%) finish far behind a peloton of six lists JxC (40%) and narrowly ahead of a single list (24%) led by the leader of the Santa Cruz Oil Workers Union, Claudio Vidal (SER Santa Cruz). Vidal, who broke up with Alicia Kirchner this year, is considered one of the main contenders for the 2023 gubernatorial election. A victory for Vidal in 2023 would mark the first time the leader of a provincial union of the Oil workers take power as governor.
The only silver lining for Alicia Kirchner is that JxC is going to have work to do to keep voters on the six separate lists in the within the bosom of JxC by November 14th.
While the three governors are doing badly, Peronism (the broad-based political movementwhich forms the foundation of FdT at the national level) combined remains the dominant force in both Chubut (CST + FdT = 42%) and Santa Cruz (SER + FdT = 51%). And, if he manages to regroup in both provinces for the 2023 gubernatorial election, his unity candidate will be the frontrunner to retain the governorship in each province. Likewise, while Gutierrez's intra-party faction lost the MPN primary, the MPN remains well placed to retain the post of governor of Neuquen in 2023.
Mark " P. Jones, Ph.D ., is a political science researcher at the Baker Institute, holder of the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin Studies -american and professor in the Department of Political Science at Rice University.