During the 20 year period from 1970 to 1990, whites, especially those who did not have a college degree , have defected en masse from the Democratic Party. During these years, the percentage of white working class voters who identified with the Democratic Party fell to 40 percent from 60, Lane Kenworthy , sociologist at the University of Californie-San Diego, wrote in " Democrats and working class whites . "
Now, three decades later, the Democratic Party continues to struggle to maintain not only a biracial but a multiracial and multi-ethnic coalition - bearing in mind that the Democrats have not won a majority of white voters in a presidenti election since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964.
There has been seven Democratic presidents and seven Republicans since the end of World War II. Despite the obstacles, the Democratic coalition has adapted from its former incarnation andn as a predominantly white party with a powerful segregationist wing from the south at his current incarnation : approximately 59% white, 19% black, 13% Hispanic and 8% Asian Americans and other groups.
Bidenwon with a multiracial coalition, but even in the victory there were signs of stress.
At the same time, white university graduates continued their march towards the Democratic Party: in the same direction, that is, a substantial part of that circumion is heading solidly towards the Democrats in the Trump era. Among these well-educated whites, the percentage of votes for the Democratic candidate rose from 46% in 2012 to 50% in 2016 to 54% in 2020. These gains have been particularly large among women, according to Catalist: in particular have changed against Trump, from 50% Democratic support in 2012 to 58% in 2020. "
Biden , according to Pew, made significant gains both among all suburban voters and among white suburban voters: “In 2020, Biden improved Clinton's share of the vote with suburban voters: 45% supported Clinton in 2016 versus 54% for Biden in 2020. This change was also seen among white voters: Trump narrowly won suburban white voters by 4 points in 2020 (51-47); he won this group by 16 points in 2016 (54-38).
This is crucial. all of these changes reflect the continued realignment of the electorate by educational attainment or so-called " learning skills ", with great difference: before 2020, the polarization of education was found almost exclusively among whites; last year it started to emerge among Hispanics and African Americans. Debate of opinion Will Democrats face a mid-term erasure?
Two Democratic strategists, Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin , both published their analyzes on the target Liberal Patriot , have resolved this situation.
September 30 in " There are simply not enough qualified voters! ” Teixeira wroteit:
In an effort to bring the argument back to earth, I asked Teixeira and Halpin three questions:
1. Should Democrats support and champion affirmative action policies based on gender and race?
2. If asked in a debate, what should a Democrat say about asserts that "standardized testing has become the most effective racist weapon ever designed to degrade objectively black and brown minded and legally exclude their bodies from prestigious schools? "
3. How should a Democrat answer questions about intergenerational poverty , births outside marriage and the question of the absence of a father?
In an email, Teixeira addressed affirmative action:
Affirmative action in the sense of, say, racial preferences has always been and continues to be unpopular. The latest evidence comes from the deep blue state of California which defeated an effort to restore racial and gender preferences in public education, employment and contracts by an overwhelming 57 to 43 margin. As President Obama once said, "We need to think about affirmative action and design it in such a way that some of our children who are advantaged do not receive more favorable treatment than one. poor white child who struggled more ", there has always been a strong case for class-based affirmative action that may be worth revisiting rather than doubling down on affirmative action based on race.
Teixeira on Kendi's arguments:
The left, according to Teixeira,
In March, Halpin wrote an essay, The Rise of the Neo-Universalists ", in which he argued that
He calls this circumion "neo-universalists" and says they are united by "a vision of American citizenship based on the fundamental belief in equal dignity and human rights. all. "This means, he continued,
Ho So would neo-universalism deal with affirmative action policies based on gender and race?
"In terms of affirmative action, neo-universalism would agree with the initial and objective need of the positive action at the sfollow up the legal dismantling of racial and gender discrimination, "Halpin wrote in an email:
What did Halpin think of the opinions Kendi?
Moreover, theories like these, according to Halpin, promote "sectarian racial pisions and encourage people to see themselves only through the prism of the race of perceptions which is oppressed privileged ”. Liberals, continued Halpin, "s for much of the 20th century trying to get society to not this way, so these contemporary critical theories are a huge hindrance to building larger coalitions solidarity racial lines, ethnic gender. "
On the issue of intergenerational poverty, Halpin argued that
Although the question of racial and cultural tensions within the democratic coalition was on subject of debate for decades , the current focus amon g Democratic strategists are part of the well-educated party elite.
David Shor, a Democratic data analyst, became a central figure in these uh. Shor's approach was described by my colleague Ezra Klein the last week. First, leaders must recognize that "the party has become too unrepresentative at the elite level to continue to be represented.entative at the mass level ”and then“ Democrats should do numerous polls to determine which of their views are popular and which are not. popular, and then they should talk about popular stuff and shut up about unpopular stuff. "
How can Democrats defuse the inevitable Republican attacks on the" unpopular stuff "of contemporary liberalism " - to use Klein's expression - much of which concerns issues of race and immigration as well as the differences raised by identity politics on the left?
Shor observes that "We ended up in a situation where white liberals are more to the left than black and Hispanic Democrats on just about every issue: taxes, health care, policing and even on racial issues or
"The joke is that the GOP really brings together the multiracial labor coalition that the left has always dreamed of" , Shor told Politico in an interview after the November elections.
On the 9th October, another of my colleagues, Jamelle Bouie, we igh in:
The most important point of Bouie is that This debate needs clarity, and I want Shor and his allies to be much more direct about the specific tactics they would use and what their strategy would look like in practice. To me, it seems to me that they are talking around the problem rather than being blunt about which path they want to take.
Review Shor on the contemporary Democratic Party and the disproportionate influence of its young, well-educated white liberal elite has sparked a network of counter-critics. For example, Ian Hanley-Lopez , professor of law at Berkeley, recently published " Shor is mainly wrong about racism (qui is to say, about electoral politics) "on Medium, an essay in which Lopez argues that
Haney-Lopez agrees that
But, according to Lopez,
Lopez argues that the best way to defuse racial problems which
The basic idea, Lopez wrote,
Steve Phillips , the founder of Democracy in Color (and, like Haney-Lopez, a frequent contributor to Times), goes even further. In an email, Phillips argued that for over 50 years, "Democrats have NEVER won the blank vote. It's all about the real problem, which is thatthe majority of white voters never support Democrats. Even white voters with a university education "are very, very fickle. There is potential to increase this share, but at what cost? The bottom line? “I don't think they are mobile; certainly, in a significant sense. "
Phillips wrote that his
In his e-mail, Phillips acknowledged that "it looks like there has been a slight dip in that Clinton got 76% of the working class vote among minorities and Biden 72%. But I always come back to the big points mentioned. above. "
On this point, Phillips may underestimate the importance of the four point drop and the larger decline among Hispanic working class. If this is a trend - a big if because we don't know how much it concerns yet.e Donald Trump and whether these trends will persist without him - this has the hallmarks of a significant new problem for Democrats in future elections. With this in mind, it is all the more important for Democratic strategists of all ideological stripes to clarify which specific approaches they support are most effective in a, if not countering, the racial and cultural issues that have weakened the party during the elections. last elections, even when they are won.
Saying that party candidates should just downplay the tough ones may not be enough.
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