UNITED KINGDOM - JANUARY 01: Children listening radio in London (Photo by ... Keystone-France / Gamma-Keystone via Images) Gamma- Keystone via Images
A new forecast for the US music streaming market from eMarketer suggests that an upward curve will continue for the majority of hub services until 2025, but steadily declining is the plight of the oldest kid in the neighborhood.
Due to the specifics of how Spotify works - a limited free tier running on ad revenue sitting next to it. 'a premium paid version - eMarketer figures see the music streaming industry through two different lenses: listeners totals; and the total number of subscribers.
Spotify dominates in both cases, which is not surprising given that its entire model is based on using free access (with some limitations and restrictions) as a key way to attract users and convert them into paid subscribers. Spotify currently has, according to eMarketer, 83.1 million users in the United States, including 44.7 million paying subscribers: this figure is expected to increase to 100.6 million users by 2025, of which a little more than half (52.2 million) of them paying.
Table via eMarketer. eMarketer
Apple Music will also grow, although not as strongly, by 36.9 million subscribers this yearto 40.6 million by 2025.
Pandora - the oldest brand here, having launched as a service to consumers in 2005 - may face more bad news than good news. Like Spotify, it operates on a "freemium" model (limited access for free users extending to unlimited access for full subscribers). According to eMarketer, the total number of users will increase from 54.2 million this year to 46.1 million in 2025. However, it could see marginal growth in the number of subscribers from 6.5 million to 7 million during the same period.
The figures for the services of two of the largest companies in the world are, however, much more difficult to pin down and forecasts for them come with certain and important caveats.
Amazon AMZN offers a full subion service, but also incorporates a more limited on-demand music offering into Prime subions. Separating them is out of the reach of eMarketer here. The report shows that the total number of listeners is 'Amazon will drop from 49.8 million to 56.8 million between 2021 and 2025, but these numbers need to be approached with more caution than we normally would when it comes to forecasting in general. We don't have visibility into how many people pay for Amazon's music service regardless of Prime access, but we expect Amazon to be a major player in this space as well, " eMarketer explains.
Another service with caveats is YouTube Premium whose eMarketer plans will grow from 29.5 million subscribers this year to 46.6 million by 2025 .This would make it a bigger player than Apple. Music and second only on Spotify in the market. However, the clauses of this forecast are numerous.
"YouTube Premium isn 't exclusively used for audio listening, but we have included it in this preview because most of the users who pay for you Tube use it for listen to music or podcasts at least once a month, "notes eMarketer." Our YouTube Premium metric combines YouTube Premium and YouTube Music. Our YouTube Premium estimate captures all users who use this product, including those who use it. use for purposes other than audio listening. "
Boston Mayor Kevin White points to a graph showing inflation costs, Boston, Massachusetts, 25th ... September 1978. (Photo by Barbara Alper / Images) Images
Despite the artists claiming better streaming prices, the services do not not increasing prices as a possible way to cover this - mainly because if "When a service moves out of line and increases prices, competing services will most likely lower prices to try to poach their users. . This is less of a price war than of inertia of the price motivated by fear. And so the tariff deadlock continues.
What would be more revealing and interesting would be to model the growth curves here compared to what they would be if the services in question were increasing their prices.
If so, the optimism behind these numbers might not shine as brightly.