Walker Zimmerman des United States honors fans after a 2-1 win over Costa Rica in a ... 2022 World Cup qualifier on Wednesday evening in Columbus, Ohio. Images
In September, most supporters and experts of the The United States men's national team saw a total of six points in the first three Concacaf World Cup qualifiers as a worst-case scenario.
But the Americans took just five against El Salvador, Canada and Honduras, and still came out tied for the top of the eight-team standings.
This month Here, those the same people mostly saw seven points as the magic minimum number of the October window.
Again, the USMNT missed this point by one point. goal. Again, they finished the window fit, in second place behind Mexico only after Wednesday's 2-1 win over Costa Rica in Ohio .
The lesson here isn't that American fans should buy their team's end product, especially if the end goal is to do more than dominate Concacaf competition.
The only consistent thing so far about this version of the national team led by Gregg Berhalter is the inconsistency. Even if you understand it from the youth of this list, it's not exactly a trait that gives fans confidence in a short tournament.
But the truth is that even a Consistent inconsistency is almost certainly enough to secure one of Concacaf's three automatic places in the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. And all the twists ofe hands on every less Perfect results - like the the " Sunday's 1-0 defeat in Panama - is more strongly linked to the trauma of failing to reach the 2018 tournament in Russia than it is in current reality.
To date, USMNT earns 1.83 points per game (ppg) in the current eight-team octagonal final tournament. Even if you adjust for the two additional teams from the previous final rounds, played in a six-team format , history suggests the Americans are in a strong position.
The United States must finish third to secure a birth, or in the top 37.5% of the Concacaf table. Regarding how this translates into the past, the closest parallel is looking at teams that have finished in the top 33.3% of the table in the previous six cycles, i.e. the first two.
This shouldtherefore has to be the case. Reassure American fans that no French team winning more than 1.7 points per game has finished below second place since the 1998 round. How the teams ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th in previous Concacaf World Cup qualifying final rounds ... finished in terms of points won per game, as well as the percentage of total matches in each cycle that ended as draws. Ian Quillen via tablegenerastor. com
And say the Americans lose at home to Mexico on Matchday 7 and finish the first half of theOctagonal only wins 1.57 ppg.
Even then, history suggests they are at worst on track to earn a place in the intra-confederation playoffs by finishing in the first half of the table.
Only once since the 1998 round has a team gained more than 1.6 points per game and failed to finish in the top half of the hexagonal table. In qualifying 2010, Costa Rica finished ev fr on 16 points with Honduras, but far behind on goal difference.
In addition, the increased parity in the region means it it is likely that the goal for World Cup security could be even lower. This parity is shown in the 13 draws in the first 36 matches, a rate of 36.7% of match finishing levels.
In the previous three hexagonal phases where at least 30% of matches ended in a tie, it took a maximum of 1.8 points per game to finish among thehe first two and 1.5 points per game to finish in the top three.
The United States will guarantee themselves a loot of 1.5 points per game if they win home games against the Panama, El Salvador and Honduras and win up to one point in their other five games on the calendar - at home and away against Mexico, and away to Canada, Costa Rica and the United States. Jamaica.
Still not convinced? Consider Panama, who currently sit fourth after scoring 8 points in their opening six games, good for 1.33 points per game. If the United States beat Panama at home, Panama will need to make up at least six points on the USMNT (and possibly seven from goal difference), in their remaining seven games to overtake the Americans.
The United States are expected to beat Honduras and El Salvador at home. Panama is likely to lose to Mexico. If these results fall as expected,suddenly it is 12 or 13 points that Panama must catch up in its 5 remaining games. with the Americans in San Jose. But if they do, they probably drag third-place Canada into the fight with them.
With the pain of missing 2018 still so fresh, it might be natural to overstate this. which constitutes security. But the reality is, if Americans are now minding business at home, a return to the world stage is a virtual certainty.
On the contrary, a 2022 cycle that began with the promise of One of the most, even in recent memory, could be decided sooner than expected, with Mexico, USA and Canada mates nearly all sealing their places in Qatar before the final matchday.