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Au in the last few days, many media started a Gov. Gavin Newsom v ictory tour, make sure newThe asses show that he will survive the recall effort against him.
Not so fast. While Newsom has recorded a significant gain in the polls, this special election carries more caveats than a marriage contract.
At site 538 where data is king, they think Newsom is likely to win, but I also have this to say, "It 'sa particularly difficult race to poll accurately as it is difficult to estimate who is likely to vote. "Adding " In other words, don't be surprised if there is a polling error larger than usually.
There are a lot of factors here, this is a special election strangely timed, this is mostly done with postal voting, and there might be an advantageNatural housiasm for the pro side recall, given that they were the ones who initiated the election in the first place. All of these wildcards can confuse polls.
LARRY ELDER SLAMS NEWSOM ON 'FOX & FRIENDS ' BEFORE THE RECALL VOTE: DEMS 'CANNOT DEFEND HIS FILE ON SOMETHING '
Newsom and his supporters have touted a significant number of letters from Democrats across the state. But the question is which Democrats?
Many Democrats have signed the petition to bring about this recall election. In fact, the most stringent COVID restrictions, which have been the force driving force behind the recall, exist in blue urban areas, not red rural areas.
NEWSOM NATIONALIZES CALIFORNIA RECALL, HIGHLIGHTS COVID, BEFORE TUESDAY ELECTIONS
These disgruntled Democrats are a key voting bloc on Tuesday.cannot succeed without a significant number of them voting yes.
This is why Newsom and its media allies have focusedon his Republican radio talk show host challenger Larry Elder. They slandered him as a white supremacist, described him as a radical, and attempted to hijack the current governor's record race.
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Newsom is basically saying to these Democrats, "I could suck, but if I lose it will be a Trumpian, racist, Republican apocalypse in the Gold State. " That sentiment may be enough to sway the electors. It certainly seems to have shaken up the polls. But is that the same as sending out ballots? That no one knows.
More from David Marcus on the California recall elections
From the start, Newsom 's recall effo rt was a long shot. Few thought it would even go this far. When an underdog plays against an overwhelming favorite, the goal is usually to stay in the game until the end of the game. To give you a chance to win.
The forces behind the recall effort made it here. The odds are in Newsom's favor, they always have been, but Democrats know Tuesday's result isnot in the bag. That 's why Newsom has so many top surrogates campaigning for it.
Whatever the result of Tuesday, whether this election takes place is a major repudiation of Newsom. He was an iconic child of the government's overbreadth with his lockdown measures, an avatar of that failed policy that still clings to it as cities like San Francisco die on the vine.
To those who ask why Americans aren't responding to COVID restrictions? They are, that's what it looks like. And come Tuesday, they could still win.
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