The elections for governor of Virginia are now less than three weeks away. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe hopes to keep the mansiongovernor into Democratic hands, while Glenn Youngkin hopes to become the first Republican to win a statewide race in Virginia since 2009. A big question for national political supporters is to find out if Virginia will continue a trend we've seen among voters in California reminder : a decline in the reputation of President Joe Biden. History tells us that such a decline could portend huge medium-term problems for the party of the incumbent president. Biden easily won the 2020 presidential race in the Old Dominion. His 10-point victory was the most important for any Democrat out there since 1944 , when Franklin Delano Roosevelt won his fourth term. Biden's favorable rating in the exit poll stands at 52% with an unfavorable score of 47%, which is sufficient for a net preference score of +5 points. An average of pre-election and post-election data put his net favorability rating closer to +10 points. Today's poll paints a different picture of how voters view the president. Biden shows a net popularity rating of -2 points in a recent poll average in a state he won by 10 points. The fact that Biden's numbers are where they are shouldn't be knowntaking back. This 12-point recovery reflects what we are seeing nationally. His net approval rate (approve - disapprove) among voters is around -5 points, while he has gained nationally by 4.5 points. on the downside is similar to what we saw in California. Yes, Governor Gavin Newsom easily repelled a recall effort there. At the same time, Biden's net approval rating in the exit poll was +23 points. This is a drop from a 29-point victory in 2020 and a net preference score of +30 points in the exit polls that year. Nonetheless, the Virginia recording added importance as it has a fairly good track record of predicting the national environment a year later. Go back to the polls of the last three governor's races: In 2009 Former President Barack Obama got a net approval rating of -3 points. This happened after he won Virginia by 6 points - a 9-point swing from him. The following midterms, the Democrats were crushed. In 2013 , Obama had a rating net approval of -7 points after winning in Virginia by 4 points the year before. His party lost a number of House seats and Senate control in 2014. In 2017 , l Former President Donald Trump came in with a very poor net approval rating of -17 points. That was after losing the state by 5 points in 2016. His party, like Obama's in 2009 , then lost the House in mid-parcours. Although the exact figures differ from year to year, there is an approximately 10 point drop in margin in the presidential race for approval ratings President's net in each cycle. Right now, pre-election exit polls suggest Biden will experience a similar drop. That would mean Democrats probably have a lot of work to do before next year. If Biden doesn't see a drop, it could indicate that the national environment is not as bad for Democrats, as some national polls indicate. I should note that just because Biden's popularity in Virginia has waned from last year doesn't mean that Democrats won't win in Virginia. The correlation between a president's approval rating and that of any individual governors' performance can be precarious. In California, Newsom delayed the recall by 24 points. VSwas nearly identical to Biden's Net Approval Rate in the exit polls. On the flip side, candidates matter, and Virginia is a race. In 2013, McAuliffe won against an unpopular Republican (Ken Cuccinelli), even though Obama was unpopular. It was Obama's unpopularity that lasted until 2014, not the gravity-defying Democratic candidates. There were a number of Republican Blue State governors who won easily in 2018, even as the Democrats scrambled in the federal election. What we will see in 2022 are a lot of elections and those where the correlation between a president 's approval rate and results has been considerably higher in recent cycles (that is, i.e. House and Senate races). This is why it probably doesn't matter much that is gaining in Virginia fornational implications. What matters is what voters think of Biden. At the moment, they don't feel too good for him compared to 2020.The good news for Democrats: If Biden's ratings are bad in Virginia next month, on Election Day 2022, it is in a year. They'll have to hope that the recent past isn't a precedent, and Biden sees an increase in his approval rating over the next year or so.